Signal detail

MRNA Moderna, Inc.

Updated 10:03 AMMarket data as of Oct 16, 2026

Mixed / ConflictEvidence coverage: HighHorizon: 20 trading days

Evidence is divided between Price Targets on one side and Insider on the other.

Main positive: Price target
Main negative: Insider activity
Watch next: Insider pressure easing

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Price Model / Risk

Why this model viewPrice call unavailable.

Key levelNo call — evidence only

Model thesisNo price-model view for this stock.

Benchmarkn/a

Signal supportNo price-model view to check support against.

Returns

5D10D20D

Stockn/an/an/a

Benchmarkn/an/an/a

Relativen/a

Price levels

Closen/a

Pullback lown/a

Supportn/a

Resistancen/a

SMA20n/a

SMA50n/a

Drivers

None

Warnings

None

Research / Monitor

Quality context

C qualityQuality pullback watch

Quality data supports research context and still needs signal confirmation.

Analyst / Fundamentals

FundamentalsDebt ok

Analyst coverage11 analysts

FlagsLeverage ok + Analyst covered

Monitor

WatchInsider pressure easing

Newsmarkets

HistoryNo measured history yet

Freshness

Fundamentals week2026-W42

Analyst dateOct 16, 2026

Price-model track record

MRNA’s past model calls

This symbol’s completed bullish and bearish model views since Jun 12, 2026, measured against their assigned benchmark after next trading-day entry.

Updated Oct 16, 2026

SIGNAL DATE	SYMBOL	MODEL VIEW	ENTRY DATE	ENTRY CLOSE	5D VS BENCH	10D VS BENCH	20D VS BENCH	STATUS
Oct 2, 2026	MRNA Moderna, Inc.	Bearish View Repeat within a week	Oct 5, 2026	$203.21	Missed — stock beat SPY by 4.8 pts	Pending	Pending	5D measured
Oct 1, 2026	MRNA Moderna, Inc.	Bearish View Repeat within a week	Oct 2, 2026	$190.01	Missed — stock beat SPY by 17.3 pts	Pending	Pending	5D measured
Sep 29, 2026	MRNA Moderna, Inc.	Bearish View	Sep 30, 2026	$192.57	Missed — stock beat SPY by 0.1 pts	Missed — stock beat SPY by 16.6 pts	Pending	10D measured
Sep 10, 2026	MRNA Moderna, Inc.	Bearish View Repeat within a week	Sep 11, 2026	$143.97	Missed — stock beat SPY by 7.3 pts	Missed — stock beat SPY by 37.2 pts	Missed — stock beat SPY by 54.4 pts	Matured
Sep 4, 2026	MRNA Moderna, Inc.	Bearish View Repeat within a week	Sep 8, 2026	$140.33	Missed — stock beat SPY by 3.6 pts	Missed — stock beat SPY by 29.1 pts	Missed — stock beat SPY by 31.9 pts	Matured
Sep 1, 2026	MRNA Moderna, Inc.	Bearish View Repeat within a week	Sep 2, 2026	$150.81	Worked — stock lagged SPY by 8.5 pts	Missed — stock beat SPY by 5.1 pts	Missed — stock beat SPY by 25.4 pts	Matured
Aug 31, 2026	MRNA Moderna, Inc.	Bearish View Repeat within a week	Sep 1, 2026	$154.27	Worked — stock lagged SPY by 12.2 pts	Worked — stock lagged SPY by 4.6 pts	Missed — stock beat SPY by 24.7 pts	Matured
Aug 28, 2026	MRNA Moderna, Inc.	Bearish View Repeat within a week	Aug 31, 2026	$140.34	Missed — stock beat SPY by 0.1 pts	Missed — stock beat SPY by 3.7 pts	Missed — stock beat SPY by 45.3 pts	Matured
Aug 27, 2026	MRNA Moderna, Inc.	Bearish View	Aug 28, 2026	$137.99	Missed — stock beat SPY by 5.4 pts	Missed — stock beat SPY by 7.4 pts	Missed — stock beat SPY by 43.5 pts	Matured
Jul 8, 2026	MRNA Moderna, Inc.	Bearish View Repeat within a week	Jul 9, 2026	$76.56	Worked — stock lagged SPY by 17.4 pts	Worked — stock lagged SPY by 23.7 pts	Worked — stock lagged SPY by 31.9 pts	Matured
Jul 1, 2026	MRNA Moderna, Inc.	Bearish View Repeat within a week	Jul 2, 2026	$79.76	Worked — stock lagged SPY by 15.8 pts	Worked — stock lagged SPY by 22.3 pts	Worked — stock lagged SPY by 31.6 pts	Matured
Jun 30, 2026	MRNA Moderna, Inc.	Bearish View Repeat within a week	Jul 1, 2026	$72.50	Missed — stock beat SPY by 4.8 pts	Worked — stock lagged SPY by 13.6 pts	Worked — stock lagged SPY by 19.6 pts	Matured

Showing the 12 most recent of 18 measured calls.

Evidence

Signal rows

Evidence	Signal	Strength	What changed	Impact
	Neutral	Low	Current estimates have no directional weekly revision	Monitor only
Why this matters Estimate revisions show whether earnings and revenue expectations are moving in a helpful or harmful direction. MarketMind interpretation Current estimates have no directional weekly revision MarketMind currently classifies MRNA as Mixed / Conflict. Source detail EPS revision 0.0% Revenue revision +0.0% EPS analysts 17 Revenue analysts 17 Date Oct 16, 2026
	BearishFirst seen 3 sessions ago	High	Net insider value: $-49.2M	Main negative blocker
Why this matters Insider activity can flag whether company insiders are buying into the setup or selling into strength. MarketMind interpretation Net insider value: $-49.2M MarketMind currently classifies MRNA as Mixed / Conflict. Source detail Net insider value -$49.2M Buy count 0 Sell count 10 Last trade SELL Last title President Date Sep 15, 2026
	Neutral	Low	No directional technical confirmation	Monitor only
Why this matters Technical action shows whether price and volume confirm the setup or create timing risk. MarketMind interpretation No directional technical confirmation MarketMind currently classifies MRNA as Mixed / Conflict. Source detail 1d return -7.8% 20d return +41.5% Relative volume 1.2 Gap -0.6% Date Oct 16, 2026
	Context	Low	Earnings expected in 21 calendar days	Monitor only
Why this matters Earnings reaction shows whether the market rewarded or rejected the most recent company update. MarketMind interpretation Earnings expected in 21 calendar days MarketMind currently classifies MRNA as Mixed / Conflict. Source detail Earnings date Nov 6, 2026 Reaction -7.8%
	BullishFirst seen 2 sessions ago	High	Consensus target changed +1.5% week over week	Main positive driver
Why this matters Price targets show whether analyst valuation expectations support or resist the current stock price. MarketMind interpretation Consensus target changed +1.5% week over week MarketMind currently classifies MRNA as Mixed / Conflict. Source detail Target change +1.5% Upside -46.1% Analysts 11 Consensus target $117.40 Date Oct 16, 2026
	Context	Low	Goldman Sachs: Neutral to Neutral	Monitor only
Why this matters Analyst rating changes can show whether professional expectations are improving or deteriorating. MarketMind interpretation maintain MarketMind currently classifies MRNA as Mixed / Conflict. Source detail Action maintain Firm Goldman Sachs Rating move Neutral to Neutral Date Oct 15, 2026
	Context	Low	markets	Monitor only
Why this matters News context explains whether current headlines are active enough to monitor, without treating raw coverage as a directional signal. MarketMind interpretation active news context MarketMind currently classifies MRNA as Mixed / Conflict. Source detail Source Seeking Alpha Category markets Tier 1 Date Oct 15, 2026

Method & data

How each setup is built

Each row starts with rules-based signal detection, then checks which evidence lanes are active, whether price action and benchmark context pass the current rule gates, and what level would confirm or invalidate the setup.

Price-model views return once price-model data for the same market day is available.Evidence: shows which bullish and bearish rule inputs are active.Price model: positive and neutral views come from long-entry gates; exit watch and negative views come from extension plus technical weakening.Price action: 5D/10D/20D shows benchmark-relative movement into the latest close, not a completed result.Expanded details show the raw stock move, benchmark move, and relative spread.Confirm / break: the level that would validate or invalidate the setup.Outcomes: completed price-model views appear separately after the measurement window matures.Windows: outcomes are measured at 5, 10, and 20 trading days. The published momentum research documents effects over 3–12 months, a horizon this record does not measure.

	SYMBOL	SETUP	SIGNAL CLOSE	EVIDENCE SUPPORT	TOP FACTORS	RULE CONF.	5D	10D	20D	VS BENCH	CONFIRM / BREAK	WHY	DETAILS

Signals

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MRNA Moderna, Inc.

MRNA’s past model calls

Signal rows

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